August has been a volatile month. Since August 2, the SP500 has seen 5 moves of 3-4% in both directions for a net, -3%, through today.
Gold, gold miners and long treasuries (TLT) continue to do well putting portfolios into the green for August. For August, gold +9%; miners +15%, TLT +11%. Prior to this almost 12 month run in these areas, it was commonly known that ‘gold is languishing”; and “rates will go up”. Now, its “gold hits 5-year highs”, and “rates seen to continue to fall”. Often by the time the media reports it widely, the trend is nearing completion.
As we approach Labor Day and the seasonally worst time of the year (Sept/Oct) I am watching for the SP500 to at least stay over 2850, and if we can get over 2940 it opens the door to climb further-but until then markets are under pressure. Small cap, international stocks are still well below their highs.
Recently it appears the when the US Dollar weakens, US stocks fall while ex-US are more stable. If the Fed continues to acknowledge further Fed funds rate cuts are likely, this can weigh on the Dollar—unless Europe et al jump ahead and push rates lower via more bond purchases. So, we may see relative outperformance from ex-US stocks.
Of the individual names purchased recently, one has bee sold out. IPHI was falling as the sector and general market was climbing, falling below a recent low in July. The loss was less than 5%. Cannabis remains under pressure. Curaleaf reported 200%+ gain in year over year revenue and today saw a drop of 9% at the open, followed by a 23% climb! This may mark a turn for the sector, but a reversal of these gains will see us abandon this sector in the near term.
The yield curve inversion has been big news. The 10-yr treasury yield crossed below the 2-yr yield on 8/13 and again on 8/27. While many other curve inversions have been occurring, this pair, coinciding with a 700 point down day on the Dow has gotten much attention. The past 3 recessions have occurred as this curve normalizes, that is un-inverts and re-steepens. I first pointed this out in my quarterly Observation piece January 2019.
Adam Waszkowski, CFA