June 1, 2020
Like April, equity markets started the month of May off slowly, but over the past 10 days, the S&P500 has gained roughly 4.5% on the month putting it at -5.7% year to date. International equity indices gained a bit more for the month but continue to lag the U.S. by a wide margin. Bonds were generally flat, with junk bonds moving up alongside stocks, while a small move up in interest rates pushed the long bond (TLT) down slightly on the month. Gold moved up almost 3% on the month, after being up almost 4% mid-month. And our individual stocks continue to do well, enabling our average moderate portfolio to add just over 3.5% for May and for year to date returns approaching 4%.
Looking ahead, it appears investors are pricing the market in expectation of a solid second half recovery and near full economic recovery into 2021. While investors have bid up prices in anticipation, there is a loooong way to go to recover from the sinkhole we are in. Current earnings estimates for second quarter are expected to drop 35%, reflecting a full year estimate of around $100/share of the SP500. If that occurs and the expected earnings bounce in Q3 and Q4, we have a forward Price to Earnings ratio of 30x, which is extremely expensive. We will see earnings in mid-July; first read on GDP at the end of July; and all the while we will see employment numbers each week. On going jobless claims have now exceeded 20 million, reflecting an unemployment rate a bit under 15%. Economic data will remain dire. The hope is that employment and spending figures rebound rapidly in the coming weeks.
As mentioned last month, the expectations and sentiment that direct short term prices are well ahead of actual improvements in employment or spending (declining). We have made significant progress in flattening the curve with the virus. We have seen stock prices climb dramatically alongside the hope of a rapid economic recovery. However, we are seeing an even more stretched disparity between current prices and reality on the ground. This does keep markets at risk of wide price vacillations.
Attaining and holding 3000 on the SP500 does allow for further upside in the markets and while I rotate out of individual stocks that have lost their ‘mojo’ (or take profits), there is another handful I am tracking and may show up in portfolios in the coming days. In my April Observations and Outlook, with tongue firmly in cheek, I outlined a path for stocks to 4000 if the Fed continues to add liquidity/monetize debt. Since that writing, the Fed has covered a quarter of that quantity. The rise in the Fed balance sheet has paralleled a rise in equity prices. The Fed continues to plan for and express willingness to continue its balance sheet expansion in pursuit of its stated mandates: full employment and stable prices.
Prices across virtually all asset classes remain constructive considering Fed actions and optimism towards renewed economic vigor. State re-openings have occurred, and the expectations are for rapid improvement in employment and spending. There is a nascent uptick in the outperformance of equal-weighted and value indexes versus the general market. This market characteristic often shows up at the beginning of economic expansions and longer bull markets. June’s economic data and market price action should give us a great deal of insight into the remainder of the year.
Adam Waszkowski, CFA