Observations and Outlook July 2018

July 5, 2018

Selected Index Returns Year to Date/ 2nd Quarter Returns

Dow Jones Industrials    -.73%/1.26%        S&P 500   2.65%/3.43% 

MSCI Europe   -3.23%/-1.27%         Small Cap (Russell 2000)   7.66%/7.75% 

Emerging Mkts -7.68%/-8.66%     High Yld Bonds  .08%/1.0%

US Aggregate Bond -1.7%/-.17%       US Treasury 20+Yr -2.66%/.07%  

Commodity (S&P GSCI) 5.47%/4.09%  

The second quarter ended with a sharp decline from the mid-June highs, with US stock indexes retreating about 4.5% and ex-U. S markets losing upwards of 6%.  This pulled year-to-date returns back close to zero in the broad stock market indexes.  The only areas doing well on a year to date basis are US small cap and the technology sector.  Equity markets outside the US are in the red year to date languishing under the burden of a strengthening US Dollar and the constant threat of a tit-for-tat Trade War.  Areas of the market with exposure to global trade (US large cap, emerging markets, eurozone stocks) have had marginal performances while areas perceived to be somewhat immune to concerns about a Trade War have fared better.

Additionally, the bond market has only recently seen a slight reprieve as interest rates have eased as economic data has consistently come in below expectations—still expanding, but not expanding more rapidly.   Job creation, wage growth, and GDP growth all continue to expand but only at a similar pace that we have seen over the past several years.  The stronger US Dollar has wreaked havoc on emerging market bond indexes have fallen by more than 12% year to date.  And in the U.S., investment grade bond prices have fallen by more than 5% year to date, hit by a double whammy of higher interest rates and a widening credit spread (risk of default vs. US treasuries) has edged up.

On the bright side, per share earnings continue to grow more than 20%, with second quarter earnings expected to climb more than 20%, thanks in large part to the Tax Reform passed late in 2017.    As earnings have climbed and prices remain subdued, the market Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) has fallen making the market appear relatively less expensive and sentiment as measured by the AAII (American Assoc. of Individual Investors) has fallen from near 60% bullish on January 4th to 28% on June 28th, a level equal to the May 3 reading when the February-April correction ended. The Dow is approximately 800 points higher than the May 3 intraday low.

With reduced bullishness, increasing earnings, and expanding (albeit slow) GDP growth, there is room for equities to move up.  Bonds too have a chance for gains.  The meme of Global Synchronized Growth which justified the November-January run in stock prices and interest rates has all but died, given Europe’s frequent economic data misses and Japan’s negative GDP print in the first quarter.   This has taken pressure off interest rates and allowed the US 10-year Treasury yield to fall from a high of 3.11% on May 15 to 2.85% at quarter end.  I would not be surprised to see the 10-year yield fall further in the coming weeks.  Muted economic data with solid earnings growth would be beneficial to bonds and stocks respectively.

In my January Outlook I mentioned how the rise in ex-US stock markets followed closely the decline in the US Dollar.   The Dollar bottomed in late February and has gained dramatically since April.  This has been a weight around European and emerging market share prices and has been at the core of the emerging market debt problems mentioned above.  Fortunately, the Dollar’s climb has lost momentum and appears ready to pull back, likely offering a reprieve to shares priced in currencies other than the US Dollar.  It may also aid in US company earnings. So, while global economic and market conditions have changed since January, hindering prices of most assets, I believe we will see an echo of the 2016-2018 conditions that supported financial asset prices globally.   A declining dollar, muted investor bullishness, slowing global growth all should conspire to allow stock, bond and even precious metal prices to rise over the coming weeks, at least until investor bullishness gets well above average and the expectation of new lows for the US Dollar become entrenched again.

Looking Ahead

As second quarter earnings begin in earnest in mid-July, expectations are for approximately 20% climb in earnings.  A large portion is estimated to be due to tax reform passed late in 2017.  With market prices subdued and earnings climbing, the market’s valuation (Price to Earnings ratio) is looking more attractive.  While not cheap by any metric, this should give investors a reason to put money to work.  In the first quarter, analysts underestimated profits and had raised estimates all the way into the start of earnings season.  This is very rare.  The chart below shows us that generally analysts’ estimates decline going into earnings season.  Estimates start off high and then get lowered multiple times usually.   Second quarter of 2018 is setting up to be another rare event where we see again earnings estimates being raised into reporting season.
factset earnings 7 2018

The downside to the effect tax reform is having on earnings will be seen in 2019.   When comparisons to 2018 and 2019 quarterly earnings start to come out (in late 2018) the impact of lower taxes on the change in earnings will be gone.  In 2019 we will only see the change in earnings without the impact of tax reform.   Earnings growth will likely come down to the upper single digits.   How investors feel about this dramatic slowing in 2019 will dictate the path of stock prices.

Quantitative Tightening (QT) will dominate the headlines towards the end of the year.  Over the past 9 years central banks have pumped more than $12 trillion in liquidity into financial markets.  The US Fed stopped adding liquidity and has begun to let its balance sheet shrink, removing liquidity from financial markets.    During 2017 and 2018 the European Central bank and Bank of Japan more than made up for the US absence.   Europe and Japan are scheduled to reduce and eventually cease all new liquidity injections during 2019.  Combined with the Fed’s liquidity reductions, global financial markets will see a net reduction in liquidity.   This will have an impact on markets.  It is argued whether this will cause bond prices to fall (rates to rise) or it will have an impact on equity markets.   I believe it is likely this will impact both areas and the likelihood of falling bond and stock prices at the same time is significant.

US Dollar liquidity is another topic just starting to show up in the press.   The rise in 2018 of the US Dollar after a long decline has taken many market participants by surprise.  The “short US Dollar” and “short Treasury” trades were the most popular at the beginning of the year and have been upended.  It is often that once ‘everyone’ knows something, like that the US Dollar will continue to weaken, its about the time that area reverses and goes against how most are positioned.   The mystery really was given rising interest rates in the US and a stronger economy, why was the US Dollar weak to begin with?  Now the causes of a stronger Dollar are the weakness in Eurozone and Emerging market growth.    But which came first, the stronger Dollar or the weaker economies?

Below we can see the relationship of the US Dollar (UUP) and the TED Spread which is the difference in short term rates in the US and Europe.  The recent spike in funding costs (rates) parallels the rise in the Dollar index.  The rapid Dollar rise in 2014 was partly responsible for the Earnings Recession we saw in 2015.  There’s about 6 months to a year lag from when the Dollar strengthens to its impact on earnings.

ted spread july 2018

Ironically, part of the Tax Reform passed is a cause of poor Dollar liquidity (higher short-term rates result) and the strengthening Dollar.  The ability for US firms to repatriate earnings from abroad at a lower tax rate is causing Dollars to move from Eurozone back to the US.  Additionally, the $1 trillion plus budget deficit the US will run in 2018 and on into the future is also soaking up liquidity.  Repatriation, US deficits, and Fed tightening are all pushing the US Dollar up, and will likely see the Dollar stronger in 2019, which may impact US earnings in 2019.

Finally, there is China.   China is the largest consumer of raw materials.  Besides US PMI, the China Credit Impulse impacts base metals and other raw materials that other emerging market economies export.  When China is creating more, new credit we can see a rise in prices and in the growth of raw material exporting countries and a rise in US PMI with about a 12-month lag.  The chart below indicates that beyond the first half of 2018 the impact from the past China impulse will be fading.   This fade is happening at the same time global Central banks will be withdrawing liquidity and the US Dollar likely strengthening.   This scenario doesn’t bode well for risk assets in 2019.

china credit impulse pmi

Adam Waszkowski, CFA

Happy 4th of July!

As our great country celebrates its independence, freedom and amidst the spectacular color and lights, as you gather with family and friends enjoying good food and laughter, we wish you a quiet moment to join us in reflecting on the wisdom and courage of the men and women who founded our country.

The values the set forth in the Declaration of Independence—life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness—are just as important today as they were in 1776.

Take a moment and thank all of the people that have helped us remain free and independent.

If you or a loved one was or is in the military service, I thank them for their thank sacrifice.

Remember: freedom is never free!

 

My 2 Cents

Amid all the that often surrounds politics in the news, there is something happening economically, across the country that isn’t discussed nearly as much, because it’s the numbers, not the political pundits doing all the talking.

The U.S. Department Labor says that the U.S economy is growing with 276,000 new jobs added on average per month in 2018 alone.  That is, 94,000 more per month than in 2017.

Unemployment is down, help wanted signs are up! 

Today the fewer Americans file jobless claims, since 1969 and in March we saw Help Wanted Twounemployment rate fall below 4% fo the first time since 2000.   The Consumer Confidence Index is at an 18 year high and wages for American worker have increased by more than we since since 2007, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

These economic results seem to lean towards a theme that a combination of reduced federal regulations, lower taxes, protectionist trade positioning and an aggressive America first philosophy lead to a notable positive economic impact.

Potentially, this could mean continued higher earnings growth for workers and business owners.

May Turn Up in Stocks Likely to Last

After a very volatile correction lasting just over 4 months, May 3 marked a turn up in markets.   During the correction some indices made consecutively lower highs, and either higher lows (creating a triangle formation, small cap indices) or held at support multiple times (large cap stocks).    May 3 saw a price reversal and only a few days later many indices were making higher highs, breaking up through the downtrend.  During the rest of May stock price marched higher, despite on going geopolitical concerns and a disruptive Italian bond market.

International stocks also turned up early May, but were thwarted by the ongoing difficulties, politically and regarding the US Dollar strength.   Ex-US stocks appear to have retested correction lows at the end of May but have yet to catch up to US markets in exceeding high-water marks during the January-April correction.

Drivers of the renewed bullishness in prices are both fundamental and sentiment driven.  Fundamentally, earnings in Q1 grew by more than 25% year over year, with upwards of half that coming from tax reform.  After hitting a 7-year bullish extreme in January at 59%, sentiment towards stocks became quite negative after the correction took hold, bottoming at 26% bulls in early March.  Recently bullish sentiment was back up to 35%, and I expect bullish sentiment to increase to very high levels again prior to any significant declines in stock prices.

Additionally, the record earnings (and Q2 forecasts) have driven down the market Price to Earnings ratio from nearly 25x in January into the mid 22x range, based on trailing 12 months as-reported earnings.  Furthermore, according to FactSet analysts have been raising Q2 forecasts, contrary to history where estimates steadily decline into earnings season (setting up easy ‘beats’).   The decline in prices and increase in earnings, past and forecast, has pushed the ratio down, and essentially removed the discussion of how expensive the market is.   Sentiment moving up from lows, and earnings (be they tax driven or economic) climbing should make it easy for investors to push money into stocks over the coming weeks or months.

This Correction Was Different

The dive in stocks in February came on the heels of a rise in interest rates.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury went from 2.38% December 29, 2017 to 2.85% on January 29.  This significant rise is akin to the rise in rates after Trump’s election and the ‘Taper Tantrum’ when Fed Chair Bernanke stated that the Fed will raise rates ‘sometime in the future’ in the summer of 2013.  Both post-election and in the summer of 2013 stock prices rose as bond prices fell (bond prices and rates move inversely to each other).    This time however rates were ‘too high’ and would either effect corporations’ profits or the relative attractiveness of stocks vs bonds, causing (or at least giving a reason) for both stocks and bonds to fall at the same time.

The significant prior declines in stock prices late 2015/early 2016, as well as 2nd half of 2011 (US credit rating downgrade) were accompanied by a decline in interest rates, pushing up bond prices.  The past several large moves in either rates or stock prices were met with opposite reactions from the other asset class.  This behavior is the root of Modern Portfolio Theory, investing across asset classes to reduce volatility.   This natural diversification that has been at the root of finance academia for over 30 years, but may be coming to an end.

The result is that investors who are more conservative, seeking a traditional 60/40 stock and bond split may encounter fluctuations like those more aggressive investors who are much more exposed to stocks.   And the worst-case scenario of a bear market in stocks may be accompanied by rising rates/falling bond prices.   Investors who are not aware of this and who do not have a plan on how to reduce volatility in both asset classes will have a very difficult time when the current bull market ends.  It will be important going forward to have a strategy in place if both assets decline in price and not rely on traditional diversification concepts.

Adam Waszkowski, CFA

April Recap: Narrative Changes

Stocks rose a fraction of a percent, gold fell 1%, and the bond index fell 1% in April, continuing the very choppy sideways price movement we’ve experienced this year.   The month ended just below middle of the price range we’ve seen since the market top on January 26th.

Over the past few weeks, earnings have been spectacular, growing over 20% on an annual basis.  Unfortunately, stock prices have not reacted well to this great news.  Earnings season appears to have a ‘sell the news’ feel to it.  This could support the notion that stocks were priced to perfection going into reporting season.    The decline in prices and increase in earnings has reduced the market P/E (Price to Earnings) multiple, which could allow stocks to rise back to January levels.   Tax Reform has accounted for about 1/2 of the earnings growth.  There are two issues going forward.  One is that continuing

to grow at that pace will be difficult since we cannot cut taxes every year (and the tax changes to individuals are front loaded—the reductions we have seen will fade in the coming years). Secondly, earnings’ growth slowing, even from 20% to maybe 12%, can be seen as a negative: “slowing earnings growth”.   Surprising positive economic data because of tax reform needs to show up immediately, otherwise, the ‘hope’ baked into stock prices may be removed in the coming months.

Through the month of April, the narrative of ‘global synchronized growth’ has changed as European economic data has come in softer than expected and the US economy has pressed on.  So now we see the US as a main driver of global growth.  In the very short term, this narrative change has given the US Dollar a boost up.   Over the past few months, ‘dollar short’ and ‘rates higher’ have been very popular trades and have begun to unravel.   A stronger dollar will do harm to future US corporate earnings, make $-denominated emerging market debt more difficult to pay back, and serve as a headwind to ex-US assets (emerging, Asian and European stocks and bonds).  And slower growth will not support higher rates for longer term bonds.

The change in the growth narrative/data has been substantial enough for the Federal Reserve to remove from its FOMC Statement, “The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months.”   Often the Fed will change a word or two in certain sentences.  They could have change it from ‘strengthened’ to ‘remains strong’ or ‘continues to expand’.  Instead they dropped it altogether.   This is influencing perceptions of how many times more this year the Fed will raise short term rates.  In the WSJ today the front-page headline, “Fed is On Course for Rate Increases”.  Given the boldness of this headline, its odd to see in the article an inference that even if inflation was stronger, the Fed wont raise rates more than already indicated, which is twice more this year.  There is a dichotomy in the Fed’s statement: taking out the growth story but keeping to the idea that rising inflation is OK, or even good.  Last time I checked, slowing growth and rising interest rates weren’t a good combination: stagflation.   The Fed needs to review the difference between ‘cost-push’, and ‘demand-pull’ inflation.

AAII sentiment for the week ending May 2 came out this morning and Bullishness declined, and Bearishness increased.  This is as expected given that stocks were down over those survey days.  Bullishness isn’t quite as low as I’d like to see for a good bottom, but if stocks can undercut February’s lows, we should see Sentiment get negative enough to support a rally in stock prices going into the late Spring.

Adam Waszkowski, CFA

Benefits of the Tenant-In-Common Vs. Delaware Statutory Trust

Real Estate Tenant-In-Common or TIC Offerings 

Technically there are two types of Proportional Ownership products referred to as Tenant In Common  (TICs), which are structured as a securitized TIC or a Real Estate TIC.

Since the favorable ruling by the IRS in 2004 allowing a Delaware Statutory Trust, under specific restrictions, to be eligible for a 1031 exchange the use of securitized TICs has diminished.  Some security professionals have abandoned the TIC structure for the more lucrative business model that the DST format offers. For the sake of this comparison we will focus on the Real Estate TIC and how it compares to a DST.

A tenancy in common investment (better known as a real estate TIC) is an investment in real estate which is co-owned with other investors. Since the taxpayer holds a deed to real estate as a tenant in common, the investment qualifies under the like-kind rules of IRS Section 1031.

This type of an investment can appeal to taxpayers who are tired of managing real estate. TICs can provide a secure investment with a predictable rate of return. Real Estate TICs are often developed by commercial real estate professionals with an emphasis and expertise on the underlying real estate asset. They are marketed by real estate professionals and not security brokers.

A small number of TIC sponsors take the steps necessary to structure their TIC so that the investment is a real estate investment not subject to state security laws. Usually this means that the TIC sponsor will not be responsible for management of the investment and independent management will be employed by the owners.

Real Estate TICs have significant limitations when it comes to leveraging the properties with debt or investing in large complex commercial real estate that require ongoing management where the quality of the return is reliant on a third party. These limitations force Real Estate TIC sponsors to invest in debt-free high-quality Triple Net Leased properties. These limitations tend to produce a simple structure with a high level of safety and security.

The largest draw back to a Real Estate TIC is that each owner must take an active roll in decision making. This can be cumbersome with even a modest number of owners. The need for decisions can be mitigated up front by not taking out debt against the property and engaging in long term Triple Net Leases with investment grade tenants. This structure effectively eliminates the need for decisions in the near and intermediate term.  The tenant in common agreement for each property sets forth the structure whereby these decisions are to be made. Some can be structured with drag rights or other provisions to facilitate decision making.  Investors should closely review the tenant In common agreement.

Delaware Statutory Trust or DST Investment Offerings

In an effort to create an instrument that would increase the profitability for securitized TIC Sponsors as well as facilitate the placement of debt on properties the securities industry joined with commercial lenders and invested significant resources in developing a complex alternative fractional ownership structure that would overcome what they saw as the weaknesses and limitations of the traditional Real Estate TIC Investment Property offerings.  The result was the fractional ownership structure known as the Delaware Statutory Trust or DST.

The Internal Revenue Service issued Revenue Ruling 2004-86 on August 16, 2004. This ruling offered seven significant management limitations that if followed, permitted the use of the fractional ownership structure of the Delaware Statutory Trust or DST to qualify as replacement properties as part of an investor’s 1031 Exchange transaction.

Each co-investor owns an individual beneficial interest in the Delaware Statutory Trust. The DST itself shields the investor from liability with respect to the underlying investment property owned and held inside the DST.  These instruments are created and sponsored by securities professionals with expertise and an emphasis on creating a quality security instrument. They are sold by securities brokers with no required training, experience or education in real estate and are governed by the SEC.

As discussed above individual investors in a Real Estate TIC structure must vote on all major property decisions. Without a majority owner and appropriate structure, it can be somewhat dysfunctional to get the individual TIC Investment Property co-investors to agree on major decisions. To address this issue, the individual investors or beneficiaries in a Delaware Statutory Trust are not permitted to vote. In the DST structure partners relinquish the agency and authority to make all decisions regarding the management and wellbeing of the property and investment and vest it in a single trustee – the sponsor. However, for the DST to be 1031 qualified the Trustee must relinquish the right/ability to make major property decisions. This can create an even more difficult situation than the TIC structure.

Financial institutions can loan to a DST entity. Because the loan is made to the Trust there is no need for a lender to separately underwrite each co-investor for purposes of loan qualification since the DST is the borrower and not each individual investor. This structure allows DSTs to hold multiple properties with multiple and varied debt structures. This can provide a false sense of security to investors. Although individual investors are not underwritten by the lender or personally sign on a loan, their investment is used as collateral and is 100% at risk in the event market conditions, fraud or other issues create a default. The debt structure of any DST should be thoroughly evaluated and understood by each individual investor.

The Seven Deadly Sins of a DST

Internal Revenue Ruling 2004-86, which forms the income tax authority for considering a Trust as Real Estate for use with a 1031 Exchange has extensive prohibitions over the powers of the Trustee of the DST. In a 1031 qualified DST structure, the trustee is restricted from many actions that would otherwise be normal in typical ownership structures such as an LLC. The trustee may not renegotiate leases, make capital calls, or even re-finance the property. These IRS imposed restrictions are sometimes referred to as the “seven deadly sins,” and include the following:

  1. Once the offering is closed, there can be no future equity contribution to the Delaware Statutory Trust or DST by either current or new co-investors or beneficiaries.
  2. The Trustee of the Delaware Statutory Trust or DST cannot renegotiate the terms of the existing loans, nor can it borrow any new funds from any other lender or party.
  3. The Trustee cannot reinvest the proceeds from the sale of its investment real estate.
  4. The Trustee is limited to making capital expenditures with respect to the property to those for a) normal repair and maintenance, (b) minor non-structural capital improvements, and (c) those required by law.
  5. Any liquid cash held in the Delaware Statutory Trust or DST between distribution dates can only be invested in short-term debt obligations.
  6. All cash, other than necessary reserves, must be distributed to the co-investors or beneficiaries on a current basis, and
  7. The Trustee cannot enter into new leases or renegotiate the current leases.

The Springing LLC aka The Nuclear Option

These restrictions are significant. They are put in place to enable favorable consideration by the IRS and may even seem to provide protection for individual investors. However, they place significant limitations on the trustee in the event tenants default or market conditions require deviation from the management plan. In the event any of the above seven restrictions need to be violated, there is a way out. Delaware law permits conversion of the trust to an LLC. This is referred to as a “springing LLC”. This will allow for any or all the prohibited actions to be performed by the trustee without the consent of the members. This is the ultimate safeguard, but it comes with a massive price. This action will disqualify any of the tax-deferral benefits afforded by Section 1031 to the initial investors. The springing LLC clause is required in most DSTs because it gives the lender additional comfort that the trustee can perform necessary actions in the best interest of the bank even though activating this clause will have detrimental tax consequences to all 1031 investors in the fund. The alternative to having a Springing LLC clause is not pretty and typically does not provide the Trustee the tools necessary to react to even slight deviations in the anticipated investment course. This could result in a catastrophic failure of the Trust during a market correction.

For more information on 1031 strategies, please contact us.

 

Lions, Tigers, Bears & Trade Wars – Oh My!

Volatility has returned to the markets. What to make of it and how to respond accordingly.

While it may seem like ages ago, the bull market was at historic highs earlier in the year (January 26th), but since then headwinds have picked up. It’s fair to wonder if things could get even worse from here on growing geopolitical tension.

2018 has been a whole lot different than 2017. Last year, stocks marched higher with only minor pullbacks; the largest peak to trough decline for the S&P 500 was less than 3%. 2017 was a year that lacked turbulence and rewarded investors handsomely.

Since early February, volatility has returned, taking stocks on varying swings of good days and bad. Many of those episodes were based on errant tweets that became de facto policy statements. Investors have had a hard time knowing how to respond to the daily barrage of tweets.

I’m sure I’m like most in that I abhor uncertainty, but every day we seem to be awaking to surprise policy moves that could start to harm the economy. I generally disdain discussing politics, so my thoughts aren’t political statements rather commentary on events that affect investors’ monies in the capital markets.

For long-term investors, we should all look past it, but I know that in the short-run discounting such hyperbole can be tough to do.

I like to look at more persistent measures that better gauge the markets. I consider them 3 legs to a bar stool – the nation’s overall economic situation (+); corporate profitability (+); and investor sentiment or crowd psychology (~).

National Economic Growth
We’re in the 3rd (very soon to be the 2nd) longest economic expansion in U.S. history, an expansion that’s broad-based across a full range of sectors with consumer spending, manufacturing activity and construction all showing robust figures as part of a global trend of stronger-than-expected growth. Looking ahead, U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth could well average 2.5% this year and next.

For now, there aren’t any real signs that the economy has fundamentally down-shifted. The expansion that started 9 years ago is still underway, buoyed by near record-level stock market performance, low unemployment, robust job growth and other key economic indicators heading in the right direction.

While job productivity has slackened, it’s made for an environment where unemployment is extremely low, allowing for wage gains to build as talent becomes increasingly scarce, forcing competition amongst businesses to bid for workers. While that’s good for workers finally getting their fair shake, it’s wage inflation that the Fed Reserve likes to tamp down so look for 2-3 more benchmark interest rate hikes over the remainder of the year.

1st Quarter Corporate Earnings Outlook
Corporate earnings, the primary driver of stock prices, still look great according to FactSet. For the first quarter, earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is expected to increase by 17.1% (reports have started to come in, and we’ll get most throughout the rest of the month). The forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P is currently around 16.5, above the 5-year average of 16.1 but down significantly from overstretched P/E valuation in January. While earnings are expanding, valuation multiples are contracting (at least until stock prices start to pick up again).

What’s driving a good amount of earnings-per-share (EPS) guidance is good end-demand growth, both domestically and abroad. Secondarily, this is the first earnings report where we’ll feel the impact of the new tax act in lowering corporate tax rates. While the statutory rate is now lower, many multinational companies’ effective rates are already much lower. The effects of lower individual tax rates on investments made are more indirect and probably won’t be felt in earnest until tax season next year.

Global Growth
Spurred on by higher profits and buoyant stock markets, companies around the world appear to be loosening up their purse strings as capital spending starts to tick up (barring growing worrisome protectionist trade friction). Hopefully as the global economic expansion gathers speed, capital investment will stoke not just demand, but ultimately higher wages and inflation, especially when employers have been reluctant to spend even amid an economic upswing.

Analysts’ S&P 500 Price Target
For the 1st quarter of 2018, the S&P 500 lost -1.2% in value, the first down quarter since the 3rd quarter of 2015. Since then, we’ve had a rocky start to April.

According to FactSet, industry analysts (bottom-up price targets) see roughly a 16% increase for the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. At the sector level, Health Care is expected to growth by 18.8%, Information Technology by 18.2%, and Energy by 18.0%. The Utility sector is expected to see the smallest price increase, +4.8%.

Corporate leaders, in their earnings announcements, will also give us guidance on how they expect their businesses to be impacted by the threat of tariffs. Economists and Wall Street analysts will also be chiming in as to the cost in terms of economic growth, jobs, and earnings.

Investor Sentiment
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly sentiment survey, for the week ending April 4th, pessimism about the short-term direction of stock prices has spiked to its highest level in more than 7 months.

The reason for the dramatic change in mood? Tariffs, counter-tariffs and an escalating trade war with China, let alone a pending renege on NAFTA which would ensnarl all 3 of our largest trading partners, accounting for about $1.7 trillion of trade annually, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

If there’s a somewhat positive take-away, it’s that tariffs will take several months to implement, so there’s time to negotiate, find common ground, and curtail escalating the matter.

Détente will surely be at hand. But, ramifications of irreconcilable ideological and economic differences between an aging superpower and a rising superpower will linger on in some form or fashion (similar to the Soviet area).

Technology Stocks
Another concern weighing on investors is within the technology sector. Facebook is embroiled in a controversy over privacy and data sharing, and Amazon, up 50% in the past year, sank after the president renewed his attack on the online retailer.

Because of Facebook’s scandal, techlash has been gaining momentum. Since consumer data is the key competitive edge of social media firms, it means there’s always a heightened level of risk and uncertainty surrounding one’s personal information. I don’t think the Cambridge Analytica scandal even remotely compares to Equifax’s data breach in which Social Security numbers, names, addresses and even some bank information was stolen. And, nearly half of the nation has not taken any action to protect their data since the Equifax breach, according to a recent MagnifyMonyey survey. Wow!

While other tech companies fell in sympathy over Facebook’s problems, I don’t see that much follow-through collateral damage to other tech companies and industries. This whole issue may blow over just as quick as it started.

FAANG Stocks Bursting?
I don’t necessarily think so, but these stocks were/are ripe for profit-taking as investors have been increasingly risk-off and looking to lock in gains. Sure, some of the shiny veneer has come off, but tech stocks, specifically FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google) or FAANG (inclusive of Apple), or Fab 5 (inclusive of Microsoft, minus Netflix) have been some of the biggest bull market gainers, even after their recent price drops. These mega-cap tech stocks have lured investors with momentous gains more than triple the market since 2016.

Will technology, in general, be out of favor? Not likely, but there could be a rotation out of FAANG into more fundamentally sound growth stocks elsewhere in the space. There will still be money earmarked to the technology sector, especially big-cap names that offer ample liquidity.

As this rotation within the all-important tech sector transitions, it’s incumbent upon investors to identify where the next big moves are coming – artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, cybersecurity, financial technology (fintech), mobile computing, cloud computing, autonomous cars to environmental technology. Health care too will be a beneficiary as we witness genetics research break-throughs, which will hasten people living longer – and they’ll need income to support themselves in their golden years.

Should you lower your overall tech exposure? That depends. As a Bloomberg Businessweek article recently stated, “Investors comfortable with risk and who have years of earnings power ahead might be happy with their tech exposure. They can ride out market cycles. It’s more complicated for those approaching or in retirement, who have less time to rebuild savings. It’s important to know whether your retirement fund is heavy in tech and to be comfortable with the increased volatility that may bring. Panic selling rarely turns out well.”

Heightened Volatility Weighing on Investors
Investors seems particularly worried right now that a big change is under way. That’s at least what the financial news headlines would have you believe; these news outlets are media companies vying for your attention as much as Facebook.

There are important concepts to remember however. In every decline, no matter how severe, markets ultimately tend to stabilize, and so far, this correction is run-of-the-mill.

Cognitive Dissonance
Remember the last time stocks fell so hard? You probably don’t, and that’s making it all seem a little harsher than it is.

It’s a fact of life of the mind that things always seem worse in the present. But in fact, they’re not. Behavioral economist & Nobel prize winner, Richard Thaler, explored biases and cognitive shortcuts that affect how people process information.

[Read more here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-27/how-to-profit-from-behavioral-economics].

In this bull market alone, there’s been 5 other corrections like this one, and it’s taken around 7 months on average for equities to climb out of their hole, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Based on that path, investors’ anxieties will linger until August.

At the same time, just because bouts of losses are normal doesn’t mean they’re painless, especially when momentum stocks (FANG) are leading the way lower. But the statistic is a reminder that it’s unrealistic to expect a market recovery to involve a straight line back up.

It seems even worse because of how placid markets have been since the last disruption. While individual stocks seem to be regularly rising and falling 5% these days, consider that in 2016 and 2017 the S&P 500 went through several long stretches without posting a single up or down day of more than 1%. Through April 10th, 1% daily moves in the S&P 500 has occurred 28 times this year. In 2017, we only had 8 such days.

“You had this incredible low-volatility environment, but markets are supposed to go up and down,” stated Michael O’Rourke, Jones Trading’s chief market strategist.

A move back to a normal market environment is usually hard to take. According to LPL Research, the average intra-year pullback (peak to trough) for the S&P 500 since 1980 has been 13.7%; half of all years had a correction of at least 10%; 13 of the 19 years that experienced an official correction (10%+ down) finished higher on the year; and the average total return for the S&P during a year with a correction was 7.2%.

The take-away? Turbulence surfaces more often than we recall and patient investors who don’t react emotionally have historically been rewarded. Don’t let short-term market volatility guide your allocation; your investments should reflect your time horizon.

Moving Forward
Springtime is here – a time of rebirth and regeneration, so while the weather may still be a bit cold or inclement, it offers up to evaluate the year so far, to review one’s long-term goals, and clean one’s minds (and homes) as we get ready for summer fun.

Your money life should never be ignored, but it shouldn’t be all-encompassing that it captures too much time away from what you love and care about. The idea is to find a workable balance between your money life and the rest of your life.

I have a hunch that most people would agree they should invest for the future. My second hunch is that many individuals don’t know how to start and are afraid of making serious mistakes, so initial impetus fades.

The work I do, and that of my fellow advisors, is about creating better outcomes for investors. I hope you find my communications informative and not too heady. Please contact me with any questions you may have, and if you or anyone you know is in need of advice, please send them my way.