As we close June and the first half of 2020, financial markets continue their rebound from the first quarter’s corona-crash. In very volatile markets there will be many “best/worst X since Y”. The close at 3100 on the SP500 reflects the best quarter in the sp500 since 1987, with a gain of 19.9%. After a 36% decline off the all-time high and subsequent 40% gain, puts the SP500 at -4% year to date and -9% below the all-time highs. Our average moderate portfolio gained almost 15% for the quarter and is up 4% on the year. While further upside is possible but in the short term, US equity markets are in a downtrend since June 23. On a larger time, frame, we have downtrends since June 8 and off the highs on February 19th. Getting over 3200 should open the door towards 3400+, but if we lose the 3000 level, my medium-term outlook will change. Our individual stocks continue to do very well.
International equities continue to sorely lag US equities. European shares gained 2.5% on the month, and currently sit at -14% year to date. Japan gained 1% and China ebbed 1.6% on the month and both fall well short of the SP500 at -7% and -9%, respectively, year to date. Emerging markets were the winner on the month at +6% but also have made far less progress recovering post-crash, coming in at -11% year to date. We sold the last bits of emerging and international equities towards the end of the month.
In credit markets, treasuries have dominated over all other areas of the bond markets. The long bond/20-yr treasury ebbed by 2.25% during the month, is flat for the quarter and up a massive 20% for 2020. Even with equivalent maturities, treasuries are outpacing investment grade and junk bonds by 5% and 17%(!) respectively. The investment grade corporate bond etf, LQD is up 5.1% ytd, while junk bond etf, JNK is -7.7% ytd. This disparity is due to the rapid credit deterioration seen during this severe recession. Given this, and spike in covid19 cases, its unlikely rates will rise appreciably in the near term. Our long treasury position was reduced late March at slightly higher prices.
Economic data released in June continue to show improvement over the April/May shutdown (naturally). The pace at which the economy would rebound after reopening is a hot topic. We are seeing rapid improvement in some areas but the estimates versus data are showing extremely poor forecasting ability by economists in the short term. I am watching year over year data to see how much rebound we are getting. If July and August data show similar growth as May and June, we could see 90% of more of the economy back by Labor Day. The trend of economic recovery is far more important than the level. Ideally, we will trend higher and higher until full recovery. At the end of July, we will get the first read on GDP for the second quarter. The Atlanta Fed current estimate has risen to -36%.
Looking forward, the recent spike in virus cases has opened the door to the risk that the re-opening of the economy will be slowed, as we are more likely to see county or regional shutdowns. Continued support from the Fed and continuation of stimulus programs are critical. A bit higher in equities may provide some momentum to get to 3400 and Fed intervention can keep rates low.
Adam Waszkowski, CFA