While it’s only been two weeks into the new Quarter, the investment landscape has undergone some dramatic changes. The once-delayed universal tariffs went into effect April 2, but the world was incredibly surprised at the level of additional tariffs and the manner in which they were determined. As a result, the S&p500 dropped 15% over a few days.

Now the new tariffs have been paused, except for the blanket 10% on all trading partners and 154% on China, except for on certain products. The core problem is the fact that these tariffs can change without notice, hobbling business’ ability to plan ahead.

The question remains can consumers power through added costs/inflation like 2022; or will US-China trade dry up and shelves at Target and Walmart become a bit thinner.

TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units, aka shipping containers) volume for the week ending April 8 to the week ending March 31, of US imports has dropped 64%. Global TEUs booked has dropped 49%. Exports from US to China has dropped 36%. Some of this decline could be attributed to ‘front-running’ tariffs.

Gold has had quite a run over the past 6 months, gaining more than 25%. There are several stories in the news now about how gold has outperformed the S&P500 over the past 20yrs, 620% vs 520%. While I am still bullish on gold, often when a stock, sector, asset class outperforms and is in the headlines, most of the gains are in the bag. We’re likely to see a bit more volatility in gold in the near term and may be an opportunity to move funds into higher-quality, shorter-term bonds yielding 4-6%, or perhaps stocks will test recent lows and start at 10%+ rally into late Spring. Time will tell.

Thank you and Happy Easter!